Good Fortune
One of the values of owning a home on Classic Ridge is the beautiful view of Neahkahnie Mountain, the view of the beach, and of course -- its proximity above the Tsunami zone. In the event of a tragedy, Classic Ridge will undoubtedly be an escape route for many as they race to one of the two of the highest points along the Manzanita beach line. Classic Ridge not only holds the distinction of a beautiful view but it is also a necessity to the Manzanita community in the event of a tsunami.
Not So Long Ago
The most recent occurrence of a tsunami in Oregon was in 1964. Dale Stocken, a Nehalem resident at the time and chairman of the Port of Nehalem Board of Directors, remembered it clearly. "All of the sudden there was just a tremendous surge of water," he recalls. That surge of water he was referring to is a Tsunami, and that surge of water rolls in quickly leaving those on the beach just a few minutes to get to high ground. At its fastest, Tsunamis can travel roughly 500 mph and generally reach roughly 20-30 MPH once they hit the shore line (Tstunami.gov). Considering the average running speed of a healthy human is about 18 MPH, anyone on that beach is going to have to hustle to high ground quickly if they have any chance of survival.
Where do you run?
“High ground” in tsunami speak represents a very specific altitude -- 50 feet above sea level. It is at these locations that designated Assembly Areas are established. It is important to note that Assembly Areas are different from evacuation zones.
“An "Assembly Area" is a location that serves an immediate life safety purpose for immediate evacuation during a tsunami event. It is not meant for long-term occupation. It gives first responders an idea of where to look for survivors.”
“An "Evacuation Center" is set up by groups, such as the American Red Cross, for the purpose of long-term evacuee care. These are rarely designated on tsunami evacuation maps as it is not known until after the event where evacuation centers will be located. This is to prevent the public from going to a pre-designated location, only to find the building did not survive the earthquake. It takes time for an evacuation center to be set up; this will especially be the case after a Cascadia event.”
-Oregongeology.org
There are essentially two variables that should be considered for an Assembly area. Altitude and proximity.
How do we know what’s a safe place?
Mapping of the Oregon Coast Tsunami Zones was established in the area by The Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) ultimately resulting in a Tsunami Inundation Map (TIM).
“TIM maps include a wealth of information, including projected tsunami wave height time series charts and a measurement of the exposure each community has to the various tsunami scenarios: we count the number of buildings that are inundated by each scenario.
The public, planners, emergency managers and first responders, elected officials, and other local decision makers can use these detailed and innovative map products to mitigate risk and to reduce the loss of life and property.”
-DOGAMI
These TIM maps are utilized to designate assembly areas throughout the City of Manzanita. For example you can see an assembly area (Designated by an “A”) near Division street which resides above 50 feet. The maps clearly label the safe zones in green which can be referenced in this Tsunami Evacuation Map
How fast can you run?
Assembly areas are scattered about the city representing areas where you should meet in the event of Tsunami. We have four between the municipalities of Manzanita and Neahkahnie. You can reference them here on the TIM map provided.
What you will likely notice is that all Assembly Areas are located relatively close together providing clear escape for would be victims of a tsunami. However, if you find yourself on foot between the North Ave and Nehalem road (Roughly 7 Blocks) you will have a 17 minute walk (.8 miles) to the nearest Assembly area in Manzanita City; 15 minute walk up Nehalem Road to get above the Tsunami zone; or 28 minutes walk to the Meadow Loop zone in Neahkahnie.
What shouldn't be ignored is that the Doris Davis trail (with access through Beach Street) provides a walking escape route that is roughly 8 minutes from the beach. The fastest beach escape on the beach is roughly seven minutes faster than any other route in the city. Classic Ridge residents know this and why shouldn't they? It is clearly designated on Google Maps which can be seen on this image.
Unnervingly this trail was closed to the community on April 23, 2020 with barbed wire and surveillance cameras. This was compounded when the “Classic Ridge Dune Trail” was closed due to the Dune restoration project (both trails can be seen in green below). Not only are these trail closures inhibiting beach goers from an option of escape, but these closures also reduce the number of outlets to the existing assembly areas. Putting both Manzanita and Neahkahnie residents in clear danger.
What's the answer?
In short, Classic Ridge has always been the default escape route in the event of Tsunami. As the highest point (100 Feet) accessible in ½ mile radius to the north and nearly a mile to the south it is an obvious route for those in danger. The obvious choice is to leverage one of the existing trails since they are familiar and walkable. More importantly, the Doris Davis trail is seen on Google Maps making its location clearly recognizable for out of towners that are not familiar with the area. Residents of Neahkahnie and Manzanita communities have counted on these trails for beach access but also for their family’s safety. To remove access to these trails puts the community in danger. It is the hope of this campaign that these trails will be reopened to the public until an alternative can be found.
This contribution was written by Rob Jordan former peace Corps volunteer and Disaster Action team Captain of the American Red Cross. Aside from local tragedies Rob served as transportation coordinator during the 9/11 tragedy ensuring nurses and social workers could reach their respective destinations quickly and efficiently.
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